https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/tede/4453 PPGE 2026-07-21T17:15:21Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/38341 Título: Ensaios em Economia da Educação: impacto da política pública de ensino no Brasil Autor(es): Fernandes, Diego Palmiere Orientador: Souza, Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Abstract: Early childhood education is established in Law No. 9,394/1996, known as the Law of Guidelines and Bases of National Education (LDB), as the first stage of basic education, comprising daycare centers, intended for children aged zero to three years, and preschools, aimed at children aged four to five years. The expansion of enrollment at this level has been a central focus of Brazilian educational policy in recent decades, being essential to ensuring the right to education and promoting social and economic development. In this context, the National Program for the Restructuring and Acquisition of Equipment for the Public Early Childhood Education Network – Proinfância was established in 2007, with the objective of financing the construction, expansion, and restructuring of early childhood education facilities through federal government funds transferred to municipalities. The first essay of this dissertation aims to assess the effects of Proinfância on two fundamental dimensions: (i) the academic performance of students in the early years of elementary education, and (ii) the labor market participation of women at the municipal level, over the period from 2001 to 2023. The methodology employed is based on the Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Periods approach, following Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), which allows for the estimation of causal effects considering the staggered adoption of the policy by municipalities over time. The results indicate that the program had a significant positive impact on the expansion of enrollments in early childhood education, as well as on improvements in academic performance, particularly in Portuguese and mathematics in the 5th grade. Furthermore, although the expansion of early childhood education through Proinfância led to advances in coverage, its impact on formal female employment appears to be limited or nonexistent at the national level. The main contribution of this essay is to provide robust empirical evidence on the multiple effects of expanding early childhood education in Brazil, reinforcing the role of public policies in promoting educational equity and enhancing female economic participation. The second essay aims to evaluate the efficiency of Brazilian municipalities in converting public educational resources into student performance outcomes, with a focus on the effects of the implementation of the New FUNDEB, during the period from 2009 to 2023. This analysis is grounded in the understanding that education is a strategic driver for human, economic, and social development, as well as a core commitment of countries under the United Nations 2030 Agenda, particularly within Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4), which aims to ensure inclusive, equitable, and quality education for all. Despite advances in the financing of basic education over recent decades, Brazil continues to face persistent challenges in translating increased investment into effective improvements in learning outcomes, as reflected in the stagnation of indicators such as IDEB and SAEB. In response, this essay seeks to determine whether the changes introduced by the New FUNDEB have positively influenced the efficiency of municipalities in managing educational resources. To this end, two complementary methods were employed. In the first stage, the study applied the Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (Dynamic DEA) based on the Slacks- Based Measure (SBM) model proposed by Tone and Tsutsui (2010). This approach allows for the measurement of intertemporal technical efficiency of municipalities in converting inputs—such as public expenditures, enrollments, and infrastructure—into educational outcomes, considering the cumulative effects over time. In the second stage, a truncated regression with bootstrap, following the methodology of Simar and Wilson (2007), was used to identify how structural, fiscal, and institutional characteristics of municipalities impact their efficiency scores, particularly in the context of the financial restructuring brought about by the New FUNDEB. The findings reveal that the New FUNDEB, through the VAAT and VAAR equalization mechanisms, has played a significant role in improving efficiency scores, especially among small and medium-sized municipalities, which tend to have lower fiscal capacity and greater structural vulnerabilities. This result highlights the redistributive nature of FUNDEB, not only as a financial equalization mechanism but also as a driver for improving the efficiency of educational resource management. On the other hand, the study demonstrates that increasing financial resources alone is not sufficient to ensure meaningful improvements in educational quality, particularly in the upper years of elementary education. Factors such as effective school management, teacher qualification, adequate infrastructure, and local socioeconomic conditions remain decisive in determining the efficiency levels of municipalities. The contributions of this study are threefold: (i) it presents an unprecedented application of the Dynamic Network DEA model with SBM across all Brazilian municipalities, covering a longterm horizon both before and after the implementation of the New FUNDEB; (ii) it incorporates a two-stage analysis using the robust truncated regression with bootstrap proposed by Simar and Wilson (2007), enabling the identification of the external determinants of municipal efficiency; and (iii) it provides empirical evidence capable of informing the design of more effective public policies, grounded in productivity, distributive justice, and a focus on reducing educational inequalities. Nevertheless, the study is subject to limitations, including reliance on quantitative indicators (IDEB and SAEB), incomplete data availability for some municipalities, and the challenge of capturing qualitative factors related to school management, organizational climate, and community engagement. Moreover, external shocks—such as economic crises or political changes—are not fully incorporated into the model. In summary, the results reinforce that, given Brazil’s historical challenges, it is not enough to simply invest more in education—it is essential to invest better. The improvement of basic education in Brazil requires not only adequate financial resources but also efficient, equitable, and strategically oriented management, with a strong commitment from municipal, state, and federal governments to build educational systems that are more inclusive, sustainable, and capable of fostering long-term social and economic development. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Tese 2025-06-30T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37726 Título: O Sistema de Seleção Unificado (SISU): o efeito sobre os indicadores educacionais e a politica de bonificação da Universidade Federal da Paraíba Autor(es): Garcia, Lucas dos Santos Orientador: Araujo, Jevuks Matheus de Abstract: This work is divided into two chapters. In the first chapter, the aim is to evaluate the impact of SISU on university educational indicators, using detailed administrative and student data for the period from 2010 to 2016. The results indicate that, over time, participation in SISU increased dropout rates by an average of 8% to 13.54 percentage points, depending on the control group used. However, SISU had no effect on graduation rates or on university performance in the ENADE exam. In the second chapter, the effects of the bonus policy implemented by UFPB during the 2022 SISU selection process are investigated, evaluating its influence on student approval, course choice, and average scores among those who completed high school in Paraíba. The analysis uses SISU microdata to construct two datasets: the first is used for a simulation, and the second for estimation with longitudinal data on the candidates. The results show that, in the 2022 selection process, the bonus increased the probability of approval for beneficiaries by 13.1 percentage points. Moreover, 41.22% of approved candidates were directly benefited by the bonus, and it was observed that students who received the bonus tended to apply for courses with higher cutoff scores. To carry out the estimations, both chapters employ the Difference-in- Differences methodology. In the first chapter, this approach was used to capture effects over multiple time periods. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Dissertação 2025-02-27T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37376 Título: Finanças públicas no Brasil: regras fiscais, sustentabilidade da dívida pública e vulnerabilidade fiscal Autor(es): Araújo, Hyolitta Adrielle Costa de Orientador: Besarria, Cassio da Nobrega Abstract: Chapter 1 - Brazil’s New Fiscal Framework: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. This project consists of three essays on public finance. The first essay investigates how macroeconomic variables and the trajectory of public debt respond to the proposed implementation of a fiscal rule along the lines of the New Brazilian Fiscal Framework. To this end, a New Keynesian model incorporating features of the Brazilian economy is calibrated and simulated within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. The results indicate that, in the absence of a fiscal rule, government spending and public debt follow an upward trajectory. Conversely, the implementation of a fiscal rule that limits government spending leads to a downward debt trajectory, highlighting the positive impacts of fiscal control on debt sustainability and trajectory. Chapter 2 - Sustainability and Public Debt Limits: Application of a Fiscal Fatigue Model to Brazilian States. The second essay analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Brazilian states from 2001 to 2020, employing various econometric methodologies alongside a Fiscal Fatigue Model. The study empirically confirms the fiscal fatigue hypothesis for Brazilian states, using a quadratic reaction function that enables the estimation of debt limits and fiscal space for each state. The results reveal heterogeneous fiscal scenarios: while some states, such as Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and São Paulo, exhibit unsustainable debt trajectories and negative fiscal space, other states display higher debt limits and a gradual reduction in debt over time, supported by low growth-adjusted interest rate differentials. Additionally, Laffer curves were estimated for the most fiscally distressed states, indicating that, except São Paulo, the other states are already operating near the optimal tax rate, thereby limiting room for further tax increases. These findings offer valuable insights for state-level fiscal management by providing indicators for debt monitoring, budget margin analysis, and economic risk assessment, while also informing fiscal policy decisions by accounting for states’ adjustment capacity in both debt and revenue dimensions. Chapter 3 - Fiscal Vulnerability Index and Public Debt Forecasting for Brazilian States. The final essay develops a Fiscal Vulnerability Index to assess the fiscal fragility of Brazilian states, based on indicators of indebtedness, solvency, liquidity, budgetary rigidity, and financial autonomy, through Principal Component Analysis. Additionally, it applies machine learning techniques to forecast public debt. Results indicate that methods such as Lasso, Ridge, and combinations with non-linear techniques outperform traditional debt forecasting approaches. The Fiscal Vulnerability Index and Own Source Revenue emerged as significant predictors, validating the Index as a reliable tool for identifying fiscal risks. This study contributes to fiscal governance by providing innovative indicators and methodologies that enhance the forecasting, monitoring, and management of the Brazilian states’ public debt. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Tese 2025-04-29T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37292 Título: Essays in environmental economics Autor(es): Bezerra, Bruno Felipe Lenin Souza Orientador: Araujo, Jevuks Matheus de Abstract: This article aims to provide a study of the energy transition process through the analysis of data for developed, developing countries and BRICS. Seen the importance of the renewable energy sector in the world, it is important to analyze the main factors of the increase of this sector in the world energy matrix. To this end, we will use Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) panel methods to investigate the main determinants for the renewable energy sector. The results suggest a strong relationship between globalization and the implementation of clean energy for developed countries. In addition, it is worth highlighting that for the BRICS countries, the financial market plays an important role in the adoption of a renewable energy matrix. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Tese 2025-06-19T00:00:00Z