https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/tede/4453 PPGE 2026-04-07T12:14:46Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37726 Título: O Sistema de Seleção Unificado (SISU): o efeito sobre os indicadores educacionais e a politica de bonificação da Universidade Federal da Paraíba Autor(es): Garcia, Lucas dos Santos Orientador: Araujo, Jevuks Matheus de Abstract: This work is divided into two chapters. In the first chapter, the aim is to evaluate the impact of SISU on university educational indicators, using detailed administrative and student data for the period from 2010 to 2016. The results indicate that, over time, participation in SISU increased dropout rates by an average of 8% to 13.54 percentage points, depending on the control group used. However, SISU had no effect on graduation rates or on university performance in the ENADE exam. In the second chapter, the effects of the bonus policy implemented by UFPB during the 2022 SISU selection process are investigated, evaluating its influence on student approval, course choice, and average scores among those who completed high school in Paraíba. The analysis uses SISU microdata to construct two datasets: the first is used for a simulation, and the second for estimation with longitudinal data on the candidates. The results show that, in the 2022 selection process, the bonus increased the probability of approval for beneficiaries by 13.1 percentage points. Moreover, 41.22% of approved candidates were directly benefited by the bonus, and it was observed that students who received the bonus tended to apply for courses with higher cutoff scores. To carry out the estimations, both chapters employ the Difference-in- Differences methodology. In the first chapter, this approach was used to capture effects over multiple time periods. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Dissertação 2025-02-27T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37376 Título: Finanças públicas no Brasil: regras fiscais, sustentabilidade da dívida pública e vulnerabilidade fiscal Autor(es): Araújo, Hyolitta Adrielle Costa de Orientador: Besarria, Cassio da Nobrega Abstract: Chapter 1 - Brazil’s New Fiscal Framework: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. This project consists of three essays on public finance. The first essay investigates how macroeconomic variables and the trajectory of public debt respond to the proposed implementation of a fiscal rule along the lines of the New Brazilian Fiscal Framework. To this end, a New Keynesian model incorporating features of the Brazilian economy is calibrated and simulated within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. The results indicate that, in the absence of a fiscal rule, government spending and public debt follow an upward trajectory. Conversely, the implementation of a fiscal rule that limits government spending leads to a downward debt trajectory, highlighting the positive impacts of fiscal control on debt sustainability and trajectory. Chapter 2 - Sustainability and Public Debt Limits: Application of a Fiscal Fatigue Model to Brazilian States. The second essay analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Brazilian states from 2001 to 2020, employing various econometric methodologies alongside a Fiscal Fatigue Model. The study empirically confirms the fiscal fatigue hypothesis for Brazilian states, using a quadratic reaction function that enables the estimation of debt limits and fiscal space for each state. The results reveal heterogeneous fiscal scenarios: while some states, such as Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and São Paulo, exhibit unsustainable debt trajectories and negative fiscal space, other states display higher debt limits and a gradual reduction in debt over time, supported by low growth-adjusted interest rate differentials. Additionally, Laffer curves were estimated for the most fiscally distressed states, indicating that, except São Paulo, the other states are already operating near the optimal tax rate, thereby limiting room for further tax increases. These findings offer valuable insights for state-level fiscal management by providing indicators for debt monitoring, budget margin analysis, and economic risk assessment, while also informing fiscal policy decisions by accounting for states’ adjustment capacity in both debt and revenue dimensions. Chapter 3 - Fiscal Vulnerability Index and Public Debt Forecasting for Brazilian States. The final essay develops a Fiscal Vulnerability Index to assess the fiscal fragility of Brazilian states, based on indicators of indebtedness, solvency, liquidity, budgetary rigidity, and financial autonomy, through Principal Component Analysis. Additionally, it applies machine learning techniques to forecast public debt. Results indicate that methods such as Lasso, Ridge, and combinations with non-linear techniques outperform traditional debt forecasting approaches. The Fiscal Vulnerability Index and Own Source Revenue emerged as significant predictors, validating the Index as a reliable tool for identifying fiscal risks. This study contributes to fiscal governance by providing innovative indicators and methodologies that enhance the forecasting, monitoring, and management of the Brazilian states’ public debt. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Tese 2025-04-29T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37292 Título: Essays in environmental economics Autor(es): Bezerra, Bruno Felipe Lenin Souza Orientador: Araujo, Jevuks Matheus de Abstract: This article aims to provide a study of the energy transition process through the analysis of data for developed, developing countries and BRICS. Seen the importance of the renewable energy sector in the world, it is important to analyze the main factors of the increase of this sector in the world energy matrix. To this end, we will use Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) panel methods to investigate the main determinants for the renewable energy sector. The results suggest a strong relationship between globalization and the implementation of clean energy for developed countries. In addition, it is worth highlighting that for the BRICS countries, the financial market plays an important role in the adoption of a renewable energy matrix. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Tese 2025-06-19T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/37266 Título: Efeitos do microempreendedor individual (MEI) sobre o rendimento e contribuição previdenciária no Brasil Autor(es): Miranda, Gabriel Antony Leal de Orientador: Almeida, Aléssio Tony Cavalcanti de Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the effects of the Microempreendedor Individual (MEI) legislation on income and social security, two essential dimensions for reducing precariousness in informal work. Established in 2009, the MEI sought to formalize micro-entrepreneurs, expanding their access to rights and social security benefits. The hypotheses tested suggest that the formalization driven by this legislation could result in increased income and social security contributions for micro-entrepreneurs. To investigate these impacts, the research used data from the Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) for the periods 2008-2009 and 2017-2018, allowing for a beforeand- after analysis of the MEI implementation. The empirical strategy combined the methods of Differences-in-Differences (DiD) and Propensity Score Matching (PSM). The analysis was also segmented by different economic activities, contrasting occupations included in the MEI with other activities reported in the POF. The results indicate that, although the formalization through MEI did not generate a statistically significant effect on the income of micro-entrepreneurs, there was a significant increase of approximately 294% in social security contributions. Thus, this study contributes to the debate on formalization policies by showing that, although the MEI strengthened social security inclusion, structural challenges persist in improving the economic conditions of informal workers. By demonstrating that joining the MEI is a relevant factor in reducing labor precariousness but not a self-sufficient mechanism for increasing income. Editor: Universidade Federal da Paraíba Tipo: Dissertação 2025-02-21T00:00:00Z