Estudo do comportamento e previsão de arrecadação do ISSQN do Município de João Pessoa-PB por decomposição clássica de séries temporais

Abstract

The Tax on Services of Any Nature-ISSQN is a tribute linked to the service sector, the same is of great relevance to the Municipalities, since collection represents a significant portion of Municipal tax revenue. The ISS represents more than 45% of its own revenues for the municipality of João Pessoa, being the main source of financial resources used to benefit the populationThe present work deals with a study on the analysis of time series for monthly and annual forecast of the Tax on Services of any Nature-ISSQN of the Municipality of João Pessoa, Paraíba. In order to provide public managers with a consistent forecast model capable of better decision making of public resources, in order to contribute to Municipal financial management. This is a quantitative and bibliographical research on the behavior and prediction of collection of the ISSQN of the Municipality of João Pessoa by classical decomposition of time series. In the work, the Additive and Multiplicative models were used to carry out the predictions, in order to present the one that best adapts to the collection forecast of the ISSQN. Finally, it can be observed that the results obtained in the present study are in harmony with other results obtained in similar works, this shows the importance of the models that use the analysis of time series as a tool to be used in public management.