Índice de esforço fiscal dos municípios paraibanos no período de 2003 a 2014

Abstract

The objective of this study was to estimate the Fiscal Effort Index (IEF) for the municipalities of Paraíba, comparing their effective tax collection with an estimate of their potential tax collection, from 2003 to 2014. Specifically, the objective was to highlight the characteristics of the fiscal performance of the municipalities of Paraíba, identifying the variables determining the collection capacity of these federative entities, and measuring the possibility of expansion of their own tax collections. In addition, we sought to establish a correlation between fiscal effort, dependence on intergovernmental redistributive transfers, and socioeconomic development of municipalities in Paraíba. Secondary data were collected from official sources, such as the Sistema de Informações Contábeis e Fiscais do Setor Público Brasileiro [Brazilian Public Sector Accounting and Tax Information System] (SICONFI), from the Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional [National Treasury Secretariat] (STN); the Sistema de Acompanhamento da Gestão dos Recursos da Sociedade [Society Resources Management Monitoring System] (SAGRES) of the Tribunal de Contas do Estado da Paraíba [Court of Audit of the State of Paraíba]; the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística [Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics] (IBGE); and the Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro] (FIRJAN). A panel-based econometric technique with a fixed effects regression model was used to determine the potential tax revenue of municipalities in Paraíba. To obtain the fiscal effort index, the effective collection of municipalities was divided by the potential collection estimated by the model. The results indicated that the tax revenue of the municipalities of Paraiba from 2003 to 2014 could have been up to 46% higher. In addition, by Pearson's correlation coefficient, it was evidenced that the IEF is negatively correlated with the dependence of the redistributive transfers, and positively with the socioeconomic development. It was also observed that the degree of dependence of redistributive transfers is negatively correlated with socioeconomic development.