Modelos empíricos de economia internacional

Abstract

This thesis deals with two problems related to the empirical literature on international trade. In the first study, a solution to the problem of endogeneity (simultaneous relation) present in the estimation of the models of the Theory of Trade Terms is searched. The proposed alternative takes into consideration the dynamics of trade relations and is robust to the presence of endogeneity, trade observations equal to zero and the inclusion of multiple fixed effects. The results suggest the validity of the hypothesis of terms of trade, indicating that the GATT/WTO does not meet its secondary objectives of promoting a trade free of discrimination and able to insert developing countries. The second article analyzes the effects of international trade on economic growth and capital accumulation for a group of developing countries and, consequently, on welfare. In this way, a new empirical approach was used in which the structural gravitational model is combined with the growth models. The main result has shown that the costs of international trade negatively affect both economic growth and capital accumulation. In turn, counterfactual exercises reported that changes in trade costs would result in welfare variations, casting more questions on the outcome of the first article.