Conexões políticas e desempenho: um estudo da mutualidade entre políticos, governo e bancos em operação no Brasil

Abstract

Political connections arise from of the relationship between politicians, companies and government. These are identified in a variety of ways, including through the presence of a politician and/or ex-politician in the management and governance systems, donation to political campaigns and through the "government shareholder" present in the organization's shareholder structure. The Political Connections emerge from State Capitalism, that is, when the State becomes present in the economy in an outstanding way, acting as investor and regulator. The Brazilian banking industry is marked by frequent oscillations, until the decade of 1990 when drastic reduction of inflation, and reorganization of the national financial system, was an uncertain market. In 2017, it has the banks fulfilling a stabilizing function of the market, closely regulated by the Bacen and with mechanisms of protection and active monitoring. Banks are responsible for executing various economic policies and their role of fund allocation, promote the distribution and the macro policy of dynamization and democratization of access to credit through financial intermediation. Politicians are assigned the search for power, influence and resources. The state has the role of regulator, executed by the government "on call", a propitious factor for mutuality among actors, politicians, banks and government. In this sense, the present study envisions this influence of the government in the industry, resulting in the guiding question of this research: what is the impact of the mutuality between banks and government, through the political connections, in the performance of the banks in operation in Brazil? Using the deductive method, in a theoretical-empirical perspective, using econometric models of panel data with Stata® 12 SE software. The period of analysis is biannual for the political connection variable involving seven electoral suits from 2002 to 2014, and its influence persists in up to five semester’s periods after the election. Thus, this study contributes in the theoretical / empirical aspect of the formulation of periods of influence, determining the time space in which the impact of the connection will be perceived. It identifies that 71% of the banks in operation in the country maintained some connection of political connection by donation during the studied period. It shows the structure of the mutuality of the relationship politicians / banks / government and the interest of each one. In the end, it concludes that the political connection impacts performance, measured by the ROE proxy and Cost Efficiency, with the intertemporal effect, persisting in the periods after the election and dismembered, especially, connection by donation that influences also performance.