Análise da redução da fecundidade no semiárido brasileiro utilizando dados em painel

Abstract

In the Brazilian semi-arid region, it has been observed that fertility has been steadily declining in recent decades, reflecting the national trend. The rapid decline of the indicator in the region considered the most disadvantaged of socioeconomic and health resources, among others, in Brazil, is questioned. The fertility of the region has been studied in the last three decades in order to identify and measure the factors that influenced its dynamics. These factors include income, education, longevity, vulnerability and demographic dimensions. To analyze the relationships between fertility and these factors, panel data regression analysis was used for data interpolated between years (1991-2010). As a consequence of the use of interpolation for a long period of time, the non-normality of the residuals of the models was observed. Thus, a second approach of the method was carried out considering the years 1991, 2000 and 2010. The Final Regression Model with Fixed-Effect was able to explain the association between fertility and socioeconomic, demographic and health factors cited in previous studies as related to fertility, for the Brazilian Semiarid, in the period 1991-2010. The reduction of Infant Mortality, Illiteracy Rate and Dependency Ratio together with the increase in Per Capita Income have contributed significantly to the decline fertility in the region.