Ciclos Político-orçamentário na despesa com pessoal: um estudo dos municípios paraibanos

Abstract

Based on the evidence that show personnel expense and social charges may suffer manipulation during the electoral cycle, this survey separated Paraíba municipalities into 4 groups according to their population range and rated this influence in term of years on each group. The sample consisted of the 223 municipalities in Paraíba from 2009 to 2019, corresponding to two electoral cycles and 3 years more (incomplete cycle). The Personal Expenditure Indexes were obtained from the electronic portals of SICONFI and TCE-PB. For the size of the municipalities, the latest IBGE census (2019) was taken into account. In order to achieve the objective of the work, which was to analyze the influence of the electoral years on the personnel spending index on the municipalities of Paraíba, it was used a regression technique with panel data, in which dependent variables consist of indices of expenditure on municipal personnel, imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Law, and independent variables consist of dummies that indicate the electoral years. The results showed a significant influence of electoral years only in municipalities with population up to 10.638 inhabitants. The research concluded that opportunistic manipulations on expenditure personnel due to electoral years, are a typical phenomenon of small municipalities in Paraíba.