Hierarquização de risco a desastres por meio de ferramenta gerencial em municípios das regiões do Estado da Paraíba

Abstract

The natural dynamics of the environment are being rapidly modified by human actions. The result of these changes are disasters, however, the intensity of their occurrence and the damage generated can be minimized by management focused mainly on prevention actions, such as disaster risk management. The prevention action lies in three stages, among which is the hierarchy of risks to disasters, considered an important tool to assist in the decision making of strategic planning, as well as the tool for prioritizing administrative problems, the GUT Matrix, which classifies the problems based on the calculation of the relationship between three aspects: severity, urgency and tendency. Considering disasters as a public administration problem, an adaptation of the GUT Matrix methodology was carried out in order to rank the most common disasters in the Northeast region, hydrometeorological and climatological disasters, for municipalities in the different regions of the state of Paraíba: João Pessoa, Campina Grande, Patos and Sousa. The adaptation carried out was the insertion of quantitative indicators for calculating aspects such as gravity and urgency, and qualitative indicators for calculating the trend. The calculations were based on the use of simple averages and normalization of primary and secondary data obtained through on-site visits by municipalities and official agencies, respectively. As a result, it was found that the hydrometeorological disasters affect João Pessoa more, while climatological affect Campina Grande, Patos and Sousa more. It was also found that regional characteristics influence the hierarchy of risks and that managers share similar difficulties in risk management.