A influência do perfil socioeconômico da população na condição financeira dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

This study had a goal to verify the relation between the population's socioeconomic profile and the financial-governmental condition of the Brazilian states. The theoretical background that supports this research is based on the theory of fiscal federalism, the theory of financial condition and the public choice theory, besides the contribution of empirical studies. Based on those concepts a hypothesis was formulated, that the population's socioeconomic profile may influence positively the financial condition of the states, additionally we sought to verify in which moment that influence is more prominent. To measure the financial conditions of the Brazilian states we used the model proposed by Wang, Dennis and Tu (2007), and to measure the socioeconomic profile of the population we used the FIRJAN index of municipal development as proxy, adapted to represent the Brazilian states. The study included 26 Brazilian states in the period of 2005 through 2016. To test the proposed hypotheses we utilized the panel data regression technique, since the sample is composed of sectional and temporal data. The results indicate that the population's socioeconomic profile does influence positively the financial condition of the Brazilian states. The use of quantile regression for separating the states into more homogenous groups indicated that the group with the lowest financial condition indexes has a more prominent determination coefficient. Furthermore, it was verified that the influence amid the variables transcends the direct relation (year/year), since the socioeconomic profile of previous years also influences the financial condition of subsequent years. The results of temporality tests indicate that the model with a one year gap is the most adequate to represent the relation amid the variables.