Impacto do programa Paraíba Unida pela Paz: uma avaliação sobre os crimes violentos

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of the Paraíba Unida Pela Paz Program on the homicide rate in the state of Paraíba. This program, which has as its main focus the reduction of homicides, was implemented by the state government in 2011, when Paraíba had the second highest rate of homicides among the states of the Northeast and the third in Brazil. After this intervention, the state became the only unit in the federation to show a drop in the homicide rate for the seventh consecutive year. The methodology used for the evaluation will be the Synthetic Control proposed by Abadie, Diamond e Hainmueller (2010), which seeks to create a synthetic comparison unit with which it is possible to compare the observed homicide rate in Paraíba. The results show that, if the Paraíba United for Peace Program had not been implemented, the number of homicides in the state would have increased by 46.23% in the period from 2011 to 2018. It is estimated that with the implementation of the program 2,220 lives have been saved. Therefore, there is evidence that the aforementioned policy has been successful in reducing the increasing trajectory of the homicide rate in the state, providing evidence that the public policy adopted in the state of Paraíba can be effective in reducing violent crimes.