Avaliação dos efeitos da disponibilidade hídrica no estado de Pernambuco: uma abordagem usando equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

This work aims to develop a general equilibrium model that can assist in decisionmaking and in water resources management in the Agreste/East of Pernambuco, which makes up the territory of the Ipojuca, Capibaribe, and Una river basins. For this purpose, I considered 58 economic sectors and four types of families to model a small economy representative of the study area. I prepared the reference scenario of the model based on the accounting flows of the region of interest to 2011. For this purpose, I used the data provided in the literature, in the Household Budget Survey and in the 2010 Population Census. The model aims to represent a local economy made up of families, firms, government and the external sector, which is made up of the rest of Brazil and the rest of the world. I developed the model based on the hypothesis that representative firms need the use of water in their production process, considering, therefore, that water makes up the capital of firms, which in turn is modeled from different perspectives for agricultural and non-agricultural firms. I considered four scenarios that aim to simulate different water resources management measures in the study area. The results I obtained show that a global restriction of water availability without an auxiliary management measure in the Agreste/East of Pernambuco generates product losses (0.46%), income (0.41%) and social welfare. (0.2%), having greater effects on the poor residing in rural areas. In addition, the results suggest that a reallocation of water supply from agriculture and the service sector to keep the amount of water available to industry constant in a scenario of reduced water availability intensifies product losses by (0.53%), income (0.72% for the rural poor, 0.35% for the rural non-poor, 0.47% for the urban poor and 0.37% for the non-poor urban poor) and well-being (1.13% for the rural poor, 0.30% for the rural non-poor, 0.21% for the urban poor and 0.36 % for the non-poor in urban areas) obtained with the global restriction of water availability of 14.3%. The results also suggest that when the global restriction of water availability is performed in conjunction with a reallocation of water from industry and the service sector with the purpose of benefiting agriculture, production gains occur for agricultural firms (3.29% ), but results in production losses for industry (4.99%) and for the service sector (0.13%). Furthermore, the results suggest that output, income and social welfare losses can be reduced with a positive productivity shock for firms. Finally, the MEGC built in this work enables decision makers to understand possible responses of socioeconomic indicators due to changes in water availability, contributing to the development of future water resources management measures in the Agreste/East of Pernambuco and neighboring regions.