Um estudo sobre o impacto do envelhecimento populacional na previdência social

Abstract

The demographic transition is about a change in the behavior of a country's mortality and fecundity, which mainly causes some effects in the age structure, generating the population aging. It is estimated that the Brazilian population began to go through this process around 1970, when fecundity began to decrease together with the mortality. The new aging structure brings challenges to the country's public policies, mainly to the social security scheme organized by the general regime (RGPS) that will have to adapt according to the new mass of its beneficiaries and taxpayers. In view of this fact the present work aims to show the impact of the aging of the Brazilian population on the expenses of the benefits granted by the RGPS, therefore, social security expenditures with benefits granted to 2060 based on the data collected of 2014, using a demographic technique known as direct standardization, through it was possible to estimate a gross rate of consumption of social security expenditures for 2060, with the purpose of comparing with the gross rate of social security expenditures of 2014 and analyzing how the behavior of these rates will occur in a population with the oldest age structure (Brazilian population of 2060). In fact, there was an increase in social security expenditures with the total population, especially when analyzed by sex, a marked increase in the benefits granted to men.