Ensaios sobre informalidade

Abstract

The first essay aims to assess the effects of informality on macroeconomic variables, well-being and the volatility of the Brazilian economy. For this purpose, a New Keynesian DSGE model with the informal sector and EC95 will be used in an attempt to represent the current characteristics of Brazil. The results found can serve to guide the construction of public policies for the resumption of economic growth and an increase in the level of well-being of families. They can be divided into four parts. The first part dealt with productivity shocks in the formal and informal sectors. In this case, there is an urgent need to create mechanisms that make it possible to increase productivity to contribute to the increase in tax collection, generation of primary surplus and reduction of public debt. As well as the increase in demand for formal work and the increase in wages in this sector. The increase in productivity in the informal sector highlights the role of complementarity between the two sectors and the option of absorbing unemployed families. The third way to obtain results was through the construction of scenarios with an increase in tax rates on the formal firm’s revenue and wages. And the increased probability of inspection of the informal sector. In general, for the two previous situations, there was an increase in the product and informal work and the collection and evasion did not present the expected behavior. And the increase in the assessment of informality reduced the informal product, however, tax collection and evasion did not undergo many changes. As for the analysis of aggregate well-being, it appears that increasing the participation of the informal sector in the added value of the economy will cause a negative income effect (IE) and a drop in said well-being. Finally, the volatility analysis highlights the effects of the informal sector on the behavior of government debt, labour, consumption and formal output.