Análise da arrecadação de Receita Pública nos municípios do Estado da Paraíba DE 2017 A 2021.

Abstract

This research seeks to evaluate the influence of the population on the collection performance of Paraíba municipalities. The technique used for data treatment and analysis is linear regression with panel data and random effect. The population under study are the 223 municipalities in the state of Paraíba analyzed in the period from 2017 to 2021. Data regarding the estimated population of each municipality for each year investigated were obtained through the (IBGE) demographic database; and budget data were collected through (SICONFI). The results obtained for the total performance collected in relation to the expected total show an upward trend. Although capital revenues were much lower than forecast and unwilling to increase in the period studied. This fact is explained by the growth trend in the performance of current revenues, which ends up boosting total performance. Because in 2017 the value obtained for the average was 90.80% for 2019 the average obtained was 96.65% and for the years 2020 and 2021 the current collection performance exceeded 100%. The result of the regression shows that, in fact, variations in population size end up influencing the collection of current revenues; and budget revenue, as the value recorded for the test (p-value: 0.0000) shows a positive relationship of significance. However, this relationship of significance was not the same for capital revenues.