Predição na precificação de ações: um estudo nas empresas do setor de moda e vestuário listadas na bolsa de valores brasileira

Abstract

The present study aimed to measure the intrinsic value of the stocks of the companies Arezzo&Co, Lojas Renner, and Marisa, which are listed on the Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) stock exchange. The sample was chosen based on the companies listed up to the year 2012, the base year for the development of the discounted cash flow to equity (DCF) valuation method for the company. The objective was to identify the target price based on projections from 2013 to 2017. The method was developed based on the operational metrics of the companies, so that the results obtained could be analyzed to compare the projected values with the realized values. It aimed to highlight the categories that most impacted the projections, allowing the identification of trends that lead a company to generate or depreciate shareholder capital. It sought to verify if the reinvestment and return on investment metrics were predatory concerning the comparison of the market stock price with the intrinsic valuation. It was observed that the market price diverged from the fair value of the stock, indicating that companies were undervalued or overvalued in the base year. Specifically, Lojas Renner had a trading value lower than its intrinsic value, while Lojas Marisa and Arezzo&Co had a market price higher than the fair value. This suggests that the market pricing in 2012 was based on other pillars or on the three situations that surround the discussion about the efficient market theory. These situations include the evaluation model being incorrect, the market having the correct pricing, and finally, the evaluation and market pricing not reflecting the fair value of each company's stock.