O hidrogênio de baixa emissão de carbono na promoção da política industrial verde no brasil

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of low-carbon hydrogen in the context of the energy transition and its relationship with Brazil's new industrial policy, through a comparative analysis of the Programa Nacional de Hidrogênio (2022) (National Hydrogen Program) and the Plano de Ação da Nova Indústria Brasil (Action Plan for the New Industry Brazil), implemented in 2024 by the Lula III government. The energy transition agenda, widely discussed in international forums, aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote sustainable development. Brazil, with an energy matrix rich in renewable sources and competitive advantages in hydrogen production, presents itself as a strategic player in the production, use, and export of this resource. In this sense, the study explores the adherence of the PNH2 to the NIB, seeking to understand the role of this decarbonized energy source in promoting green industrial policies, by investigating whether the hydrogen targets established prior to the NIB are aligned with the objectives of neoindustrialization and sustainable development in Brazil. The theoretical framework of mission-oriented policies proposed by Mazzucato is used to structure the evaluation regarding development through green industrial policy. Several challenges in this process are highlighted, such as the need to strengthen national economic development to avoid dependency on the external sector. Additionally, the study assesses the international agreements signed by Brazil in the field of hydrogen between 2010 and 2024, as well as their impact on the country's insertion into the global energy transition agenda. In conclusion, the study presents considerations on Brazil's positive capacity to utilize hydrogen as an opportunity to drive its green industrial policy, promote research, development, and innovation (R&D), and expand its participation in the global renewable energy landscape. However, attention is drawn to shortcomings in the detailing of the targets outlined in Mission 5 of the NIB plan.