O papel das exportações na redução da vulnerabilidade externa: um estudo da relação entre a pauta exportadora e a entrada de divisas no Brasil entre 1997 e 2022

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between Brazil's export agenda and the inflow of foreign currency into the country between 1997 and 2022. The main objective was to analyze how exports contribute to mitigating Brazil's external vulnerability. The research employed an analytical approach, examining different economic contexts throughout the period, including the stability of the Real Plan. The results indicated that the Brazilian economy is heavily dependent on commodity exports. Furthermore, the analysis showed that the commercialization of commodities contributed to the reduction of the current account deficit but increased Brazil's dependence on specific markets, especially in Asia. Additionally, it highlighted that this excessive dependence on primary product exports made the economy more susceptible to fluctuations in international prices, negatively impacting the trade balance during shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine War. The research revealed that, between 2003 and 2011, the increase in commodity prices favored economic growth, while price declines negatively affected the terms of trade. In conclusion, the study demonstrated the importance of exports in foreign currency inflow, maintaining the trade balance, and reducing Brazil's external vulnerability.