Impacto do clima na produção de energia fotovoltaica na região Nordeste de Brasil

Abstract

Climate change can directly affect meteorological variables and indirectly impact various related factors, such as energy generation. In this context, this work addressed various aspects of scientific production and the impacts of climate on photovoltaic energy, exploring the evolution of the field, estimation methodologies, and regional effects in Northeastern Brazil. The thesis was divided into article-chapters, with individual studies aimed at achieving the overall objective, which was to assess the impact of climate on photovoltaic energy production in the Northeastern region of Brazil, with the aim of providing data to support strategic decisions for the region's energy infrastructure sector. Reviews of the study area were conducted, analyzing the work both quantitatively and qualitatively, identifying the main characteristics and existing bottlenecks. The variability and sensitivity of models estimating photovoltaic production potential based on meteorological variables were analyzed, highlighting significant discrepancies in production estimates influenced by the applied climatic parameters, underscoring the importance of choosing appropriate models and considering climatic variability in the analyses. Additionally, in Northeastern Brazil, there was a trend of increasing solar irradiance, but with a net negative impact on photovoltaic energy production potential, exceeding 2.5%, due to rising temperatures. In conclusion, it was evidenced that although the field of photovoltaic energy production has advanced considerably, there are still significant challenges and uncertainties, especially regarding adaptation to climate change.