Os reflexos do aumento de contribuições ao VGBL sobre o volume de aplicações na caderneta de poupança e Tesouro Direto entre 2015 e 2022

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the increase in contributions to Vida Gerador de Benefício Livre (VGBL) on the volume of applications in other investments, such as the Savings Account and Treasury Direct, between 2015 and 2022. The overall objective was to analyze whether the growth of VGBL has affected the allocation of resources to these financial products. The methodology employed was quantitative, descriptive and longitudinal and used time series and the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) to assess causal relationships, impulse-response functions and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the VGBL has its own dynamics with a high contribution to the variance of the prediction error and has predictive power over the joint Treasury Direct and Savings system, suggesting a substitution relationship, especially in the medium term. The impulse-response analysis has shown that shocks to VGBL have statisticaly significant negative effects on Savings and Treasury Direct, confirming the resource migration hypothesis. It can be concluded that the increase in subscriptions to VGBL has had animpact on the volume of applications to Savings, while Treasury Direct has remained on a more independent path. The study contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of resource allocation in the Brazilian financial market and highlights the institutional segmentation of the analyzed products.