Abordando as armas estratégicas não-nucleares na guerra da Ucrânia : efeito estratégico e sistemas de armas

Abstract

This dissertation aims to develop a minimum typology for systems called Non-Nuclear Strategic Weapons (NNSW) to answer the following question: how to analyze the potential strategic effect of certain weapon systems? To this end, we constructed a minimum typology for the classification of these means, based on the combination of Hoffmann's theoretical framework for the use of NNSW, and the characterization of strategic means developed by Cunningham as a methodological-conceptual contribution. Methodologically, this is a qualitative work, structured as a case study, with a time frame ranging from January to October 2022. Before the start of the Ukrainian war, in February, until a moment when the profile of operations changed to positional warfare, marked by attrition, around October. Through the literature review, we aim to identify elements for the creation of a typology and a specific concept of NNSW, in addition to having also presented a concept of strategic effect. Some peculiarities were identified in the analysis of these means: 1) excessive attention to the intrinsic characteristics of certain conventional means, due to a supposed technological advantage; 2) the cumulative nature of conventional warfare; 3) the great difference in the destructive power of conventional means vis-à-vis nuclear weapons; 4) the circumstantial specificities of their use – against whom, how and when these means will be used. However, when we look at data on the use of means that can be classified as NNSW in the Ukrainian War, we consider the typology and concepts developed as useful tools for analyzing the relationship between weapons systems and strategic effect.