Situação financeira e atuarial dos regimes próprios de previdência social das mesorregiões paraibanas entre 2020-2024

Abstract

Public Servants’ Social Security Regimes (RPPS) are responsible for providing social security protection to permanent public employees. Monitoring their financial and actuarial results is therefore essential for assessing their short- and long-term conditions. This study aimed to analyze and compare the financial and actuarial situation of municipal RPPS schemes in the state of Paraíba, considering their distribution across the Agreste Paraibano, Borborema, Mata Paraibana, and Sertão Paraibano mesoregions between 2020 and 2024. The research was descriptive, documentary, and quantitative, using secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Social Security Statistical Yearbook (AEPS) and information provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis covered 70 municipal RPPS schemes and considered the number of active public employees, retirees, and pension beneficiaries, as well as financial and actuarial results. Descriptive statistics, the Shapiro– Wilk test, the Kruskal–Wallis test, and, when applicable, Dunn’s multiple comparison test were employed. Overall, the results indicated a decrease in the number of active public employees and an increase in the number of retirees and pension beneficiaries, revealing changes in the composition of the insured population. Financial results showed fluctuations, high dispersion, and the occurrence of extreme values. However, the Kruskal–Wallis test did not identify a statistically significant difference among the mesoregions for this indicator. Regarding actuarial results, the averages of all four mesoregions remained negative throughout the period, indicating the existence of long-term social security obligations. Statistically significant differences among the mesoregions were found for this indicator. Dunn’s test showed that these differences involved Mata Paraibana in its comparisons with Agreste Paraibano, Borborema, and Sertão Paraibano, with a greater concentration of negative actuarial results in Mata Paraibana. It was concluded that grouping the municipalities by mesoregion did not significantly differentiate their financial results, although it allowed differences in the distribution of actuarial results to be identified. The findings provide an overview of the situation of municipal RPPS schemes in Paraíba and may assist public managers and oversight bodies in monitoring the financial and actuarial conditions of these regimes.