Anti-acesso e negação de área na Guerra Russo-Ucraniana: perspectiva ucraniana

Abstract

How did Ukraine apply and adapt anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) concepts during the war against Russia, and what were the limits and potentialities arising from this experience? In recent decades, the specialized literature in the field of Strategic Studies has emphasized the relevance of studying strategies, capabilities, and technologies associated with the concept of anti-access and area denial. As an operational concept, A2/AD refers to a way of waging war, more specifically, to how military actions are conducted in the theater of operations, with the Russo-Ukrainian war constituting an important empirical case in this regard. Within this context, the article draws on the literature to examine and address the main means associated with the A2/AD concept employed within the scope of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict from 2022 to 2025, as well as their main challenges. To this end, the study analyzes the use of certain means such as drones, missiles, and artillery systems. Methodologically, the article adopts a qualitative approach, with data collection carried out through publications on the conflict in Ukraine, Think Tank reports, and official documents. The data analysis follows an analytical framework formulated based on the work of Andrew Krepinevich and Sam Tangredi. Based on this approach, the article concludes that the Russo-Ukrainian war constitutes, within its scope, a significant case study of the military capabilities associated with A2/AD, in a context marked by adaptation and technological innovation that enabled the continuation of the Ukrainian war effort. However, due to a series of Ukrainian limitations and Russia's own adaptation to the use of these means, their impact was relatively limited. As a result, it is possible to conclude that the employment of these means associated with A2/AD offers significant opportunities but does not currently alter the dynamics of a conflict in a definitive manner.