Impacto da Reforma Previdenciária nº EC 103/2019 no nível de sustentabilidade dos Regimes Previdenciários Próprios municipais (RPPS)

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Constitutional Amendment No. 103/2019, known as the Pension Reform, on the sustainability of municipal Own Social Security Regimes (RPPS), focusing on the reduction of actuarial deficits, which represent the long-term liabilities of Brazilian municipalities. The reform removed retirement and pension rules from the Constitution, transferring the legislative authority to infraconstitutional laws, requiring specific adjustments in each federative entity. Using the difference-in-differences method in multiple periods, the research evaluates how these changes have affected the financial sustainability of RPPS, considering factors such as management, governance, and the fiscal capacity of municipalities. The results indicate a significant reduction in the actuarial deficit, ranging between -11.89% and -14.08%, with more pronounced impacts in municipalities with greater pension maturity. However, challenges related to local governance and the ability to implement the reforms persist, highlighting the need for complementary policies to ensure the long-term solvency of RPPS. The study concludes that, although the reform has contributed to the financial stability of the regimes, its effectiveness varied according to municipal characteristics, reinforcing the importance of differentiated approaches and the continuity of structural adjustments.