Previsões das reservas matemáticas dos ex-parlamentares aposentados do Instituto de Previdência dos Congressistas

Abstract

In a moment of uncertainty about the Brazilian economy, affected by the corruption scandals and deviations of any kind announced by the media, the government tries to balance its accounts through economic measures, proposals for reforms in Social Security and changes in labor legislation. In this context, the objective of this study is to estimate the predictions of the mathematical reserves of former retired IPC parliamentarians for the coming years, for life. The analysis took into account the data provided in the transparency portal of the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate, in addition to specific data provided by the Chamber, under the Information Law. Simulations of current values of future benefits with interest rates of 0 to 6% were made, considering the growth of the benefits received by retirees between 0 and 1%. As a result, it has been found that the impact of the Institute's future expenditure is at least R$ 1 billion in the Union's accounts. With the results obtained, it was possible to compare the distribution of benefits between the participants of the IPC and the INSS, by ranges of benefits between the minimum and the INSS salary cap.