Efeitos do investimento em infraestrutura e de suas formas de financiamento no Brasil: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

Although infrastructure investment has a central role in economic development, it declined considerably in Brazil during the 1980 and 1990 decades. At the beginning of the 2000s it amounted to 2.2 \% of GDP, while in China and Chile it amounted to 7.3 \% and 6.5 \% of GDP, respectively. The private investment in infrastructure was not enough to offset the decline in public investment, which occurred because of the government's effort to achieve primary surpluses. Thus, the government faces a dilemma between balancing the budget and increasing the investment. In order to achieve the two goals, the investment must be financed. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of an increase in the infrastructure investment and its financing in the Brazilian economy. To do it, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used. It is simulated an increase in the investment for two years, equal to 1 \% of the GDP. The results show that, in the first three years, the increase in the GDP growth rate is higher when the investment is financed by reducing the government consumption (0.73 \%), it is moderate when the financing is done through the tax on production (0.33 \%) or foreign savings (0.34 \%), and it is lower when the financing is done by increasing the income tax (0.28 \%). Construction was the fastest growing sector (2.39 \% on average in the first 3 years). The contribution of this work was to obtain clear and useful results for policy making, enhance the understanding of the effects of infrastructure investment financing in the Brazilian economy, and analyze the sectorial impacts of this investment.