Análise da tendência secular dos óbitos de idosos no Município de João Pessoa

Abstract

Study trend is one the strategies used in epidemiological investigations and public health. It´s used as an instrument of support for establishing priority actions. It offers the means to health planning by ensuring a follow-up of the standard sanitary history fluctuations and tendencies of different community in various time periods, thus contributing to new public policies that meet the needs of the population. The aim of this research was to analyse the secular trends of elderly mortality in the period between 1999 and 2010 of João Pessoa. A descriptive analysis of time series was conducted on the death cases in the elderly identified by the mortality database of the Information System. There were 26.158 death cases of people over sixty years old included in the study. The variables analysed were: gender, age, cause of death, home address, place of death, marital status, race, level of education, surgery and necropsy. For the statistical analysis, the Wilcoxon Test and the Box Jenkins and Holt-Winters prediction series with R were used. It was verified that the incidence rate is greater in males and is positively correlated with age. The most common specific causes of death among men include acute myocardial infarction, external causes and neoplasias. Diabetes, breast cancer and pneumonia predominate among women. The mortality estimation for triennium 2012-2015 showed an increase in deaths caused by disorders of the circulatory system and neoplasias, whereas respiratory disorders showed a small increase in the elderly. Having found the mortality incidence in different genders, it was possible to highlight programs and policies targeted to the health of the elderly man. The findings show that a significant number of mortality cases could be reduced or prevented through investments on public infrastructure, prevention programs and health promotion in order to improve to the quality of life of the elderly.