Livro digital: estudo de cenários do setor editorial nacional

Abstract

It is notorious the publishing market role in the book production, being this a traditional informational support to society. It is noticed that the publishing market has undergone significant changes in its production methods to add the digital publications. This research studied the national book publishing market focused on publishing companies that produce digital books, with the objective of building prospective scenarios for the digital book market in our Brazil. Integrating into its literature review, knowledge and strategic information management elements with prospective scenarios studies. For that, key variables and actors in the digital book market were identified, their respective interactions were analyzed and prospective scenarios for the digital book publishing market in Brazil were elaborated. It was characterized as bibliographic, descriptive and qualitative-quantitative research, using a questionnaire as a data collection tool. For the data analysis, this research utilized the principles and tools from Michel Godet’s Scenario Building methodology. It was evidenced that the publishing companies showed good perspectives in regard to the digital book market, however they don’t believe that in the future digital book sales will be equivalent or even surpass the printed book sales. It was found that the publishing companies are considering reformulating their publishing strategies for digital books. It indicated that the most influential variables in the publishing market are external variables: culture, economy and legislation; and that the most influential actors are also external: readers, government, school and library. Based on the bibliographic research, information collected through the questionnaire and the results generated by specific software that uses Godet’s Scenario Building Methodology for processing variables and actors, three prospective scenarios were constructed for the digital book market in Brazil: a most likely scenario, an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic or crisis scenario as recommended in the methodology. The final result was a vision of the possible transformations that could occur in the future of this sector, promoting a prospective reflection for all the actors that are part of the digital book chain as publishers, schools, libraries, universities and readers.