Análise cíclica e choques agregados para o mercado imobiliário brasileiro

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study and verify the impacts of aggregate shocks on the real estate market and economy, using a standard var model and, moreover, shows some characteristics of business cycles for this market and for economic activity. Through the methodology of Harding and Pagan (2006), which is based on Bry and Boschan (1971), it was verified that the cycles of the GDP and GDP of the civil construction seem to be better synchronized with the other variables when compared with the cycles of real estate prices. In addition, through the impulse-response functions, it was observed that a monetary policy shock, represented by an increase in the Selic rate, has a negative impact on the economy in general and on the real estate market, strongly affecting variables such as employment in construction and real estate prices, in addition to variables such as GDP and inflation, facts that prove the importance of a good conduct of monetary policy by its formulators.