Aplicação da metodologia Processo de Análise Hierárquica (PAH) à modelagem fuzzy de análise de vulnerabilidade à seca no semiárido paraibano

Abstract

Since the sixteenth century the Brazilian semiarid region has been characterized by the stigma of periodic droughts. Assuming that it is not an easy task to predict them, the only option left is the constant preparation for these extreme events, through an effective risk and threat management. However, there is still an enormous inefficiency in the formulation and application of drought vulnerability indicators that includes not only the physical and climatic aspects of drought, but also the social, economic, technological and cultural aspects of the populations vulnerable to drought. This research aimed to implement vulnerability indicators to drought in the Brazilian semiarid region, using fuzzy logic and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the way of data aggregation. To do so, the variables components of vulnerability indicators to drought (exposure indicators, sensitivity indicators and adaptive capacity indicators) were reformulated and subdivided, respecting the peculiarities of each region. AHP methodology has been used to obtain the weights of each variable in their own hierarchical level. MATLAB ® software has been used to apply the fuzzy logic system to the indicators for seven municipalities in the semiarid region of Paraíba. Based on the results, between the studied municipalities Sumé obtained the highest vulnerability index to drought (0.5792), while Princesa Isabel and Cajazeiras, obtained the lowest results (0.5000). According to the main results, fuzzy – AHP control system provided the qualitative analysis of the vulnerabilities of the population in those municipalities, considering the integrated imprecision of droughts events and the socioeconomic issues, making possible the use of its result as a tool to support the decision to prevent disasters.