Variabilidade pluviométrica e produção de milho no município de Barra de Santa Rosa, curimataú ocidental da paraíba

Abstract

Corn is one of the most cultivated crops of the semiarid region in Brazil, however, its production is still poorly technified, which makes it extremely dependent on environmental factors. In this sense, the present study aimed to analyze the evolution of corn production in the municipality of Barra de Santa Rosa, Paraíba, between 2002 and 2016, associating the results obtained with local rainfall. In order to analyze the influence of precipitation on the variables of corn crop production, as well as the relationship between these variables, a correlation matrix was used. Similarity analysis was also performed between the variables obtained for the years evaluated and a descriptive analysis of principal components. The results showed a positive correlation of rainfall over all variables analyzed, especially for the planted area and harvested area. Even in years with normal rainfall or above the climatological average, total maize production was low. Principal component analysis recorded 84.67% explanation of the original variance in the first two axes and showed the strong association between planted area, harvested area and yield. The hierarchical cluster analysis generated the formation of four main groups, which were mainly associated with the productive results of corn crop. Rainfall was an extremely important factor in the dynamics of corn production in the municipality of Barra de Santa Rosa, mainly influencing the planted and harvested area.