Análise de convergência de indicadores socioeconômicos das microrregiões brasileiras no período 1991-2010

Abstract

The research seeks to analyze the incidence of absolute β-convergence of socioeconomic indicators for the Brazilian microregions based on the Demographic Censuses of 1991 and 2010 through the simple linear regression method, which observes the value of the coefficient β and the coefficient of determination r² - adjusted estimated. The analysis seeks to identify the existence of a negative linear relation between the growth rate of the indicators and their initial values, verifying that microregions that have low initial values in the indicators have at the same time high rates of growth. The results obtained using the simple linear regression model confirmed the hypothesis of absolute β-convergence for the indicators: household income per capita, HDI, years of study and educational Gini index indicating that they tend to a common level in the long term. Finally, there was no graphic evidence of convergence, just as the regression results did not confirm the hypothesis of convergence for the indicators: income Gini index and percentage of poor.