Há diferenças na gestão da política econômica pós Plano Real?: uma análise por estimação do modelo IS-LM

Abstract

This work aimed to do the comparative analysis of the Brazilian conjuncture between the years 1995 and 2014, based on the macroeconomics model IS-LM, using two methods of econometric estimation, the Method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Method of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). To achieve the objective, the time period was divided in five shares, comprising all the time between the first quarter of 1995 and the first quarter of 2013, and the periods, between the first quarter of 1999 the first quarter of 2013, Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s presidency management (1Q of 1995 the 4Q of 2002) and the managements of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (1Q of 2003 the 4Q of 2010) and of current President Dilma Rousseff (1Q of 2011 the 1Q of 2014). It concludes that the Brazilian macroeconomics policy changed between managements, prevailing the monetary policy between 1995 and 2010, being more effective in the Lula government, and passing on to the fiscal policy in Dilma’s government.