Previsão e realização das receitas orçamentárias: uma análise da precisão das estimativas orçamentárias nos municípios cearenses

Abstract

The public budget is an instrument used by the Government to manage the financial resources collected by payment of taxes to be applied in an efficient and effective way. This research aimed to verify the accuracy of the estimate of budget revenues in the municipalities of the State of Ceará and relate them to the population. The sample consisted of 184 municipalities in the State of Ceará in the years 2019 and 2020. To carry out the study, descriptive data analysis and linear regression with panel data were adopted as techniques. The dependent variable consists of the percentage deviation of the collection in relation to the current revenue forecast and the independent variable consists of the population of the municipalities. With the evidence verified regarding the deviations of revenue revenues in relation to the amounts collected, this research concludes that the larger the municipality, the smaller are the deviations from the forecast in relation to current revenues collected. However, the population does not exert influence on the level of deviations from the forecast in relation to current revenue collection.