Sentimento do investidor e os incentivos de catering na política de proventos

Abstract

This dissertation aims to analyze how catering theory and investor sentiment influence dividend policy in Brazil. The sample consisted of 3,051 observations from 144 non-financial companies listed on B3 during the period from 2010 to 2019. To analyze the propensity of firms to pay dividends, I estimated logit model, and to analyze the distributed financial volume I used System-GMM. The results show that investor sentiment positively influences the propensity of firms to pay dividends, but it has nothing to with the financial volume distributed. In the propensity analysis, the result was contrary to the catering theory, but it can be justified due to the mandatory payment of dividends, which is foreseen by the Brazilian institutional environment. The findings are also supported by the hypothesis of smoothing dividends and ratified by the descriptive analysis, since it was found that most of companies analyzed paid dividends in all quarters of the period studied. Furthermore, the positive relationship between investor sentiment and propensity to pay is also supported by the signaling theory, since in periods of optimism investors prefer growing stocks and firms will be more likely to pay dividends in order to signal promising financial conditions. Regarding the analysis of the financial volume to be distributed, the lack of relationship between sentiment and distributed financial volume was not fitted to the literature, due to hypothesis of smoothing dividends, the signaling theory and the mandatory to pay dividends. It is possible that companies pay dividends in order to signal that they have promising financial conditions and because they are mandatory, unless provided for in the statute. However, the volume of payment will be sustainable to the point of minimizing the long-term costs associated with distribution and allocating available resources to reinvestments with positive NPV. The sentiment emphasis on firms’ distribution policy provides investors with additional information, as it can demonstrate better investment opportunities and returns. There are contributions to the literature, based on a behavioral approach that complements the assumptions of traditional finance and under the perspective of an emerging market and with a distinct institutional environment. In relation to managers, it helps to understand the impact of investor sentiment on decisions, when these investors are (not) willing to spend larger amounts of resources to acquire shares in companies that are (not) good dividend payers. In this sense, managers must consider, in addition to the firm’s characteristics, the investor sentiment, when formulating the appropriate dividend policy for the firm, in order to maximize the firm’s value.