Avaliação dos impactos das mudanças climáticas nas vazões da bacia do Rio Piancó - PB

Abstract

Global climate change is an important agenda of 21st century society. Among its main impacts it is possible to highlight the changes in the hydrological variables and it is essential to analyze their consequences, especially in areas such as the Brazilian semi-arid that presents great water vulnerability. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the Piancó-PB runoff for two future time windows (2006-2041 and 2041-2077). Firstly, it was made an analysis of the temperature and precipitation, in order to verify the bias of the atmospheric model and understand its correction. The evaluation of the impact on the runoff was made using the precipitation and temperature simulated by the regional atmospheric model MPI-ESM-LR RCA4 as input data of the hydrological model MGB-IPH. The results show that the atmospheric model presents a bias of overestimation of precipitation in the area of the basin, and projects decrease of precipitation for the near future period and increase of precipitation for the most distant period. Increases in runoff were observed in the hydrographic basin, mainly in the most distant time horizon. However, these flows show a great variation, evidencing the increase of uncertainties as the time horizon distances itself from the current period.