Os efeitos da pandemia da Covid-19 nos lucros das empresas: evidências no Brasil

Abstract

This study aims to verify the reflection of the effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on corporate profits for the Brazilian capital market. The Covid-19 Pandemic has challenged health systems and brought major psychological and social consequences worldwide. Given the intensity of high contagion rates and thousands of deaths, blockade and social isolation measures were imposed by the government to contain the virus's control, which resulted in a major interruption in world economic activity. These events and conditions generated by the pandemic, increased the levels of shocks and risks for publicly traded companies, which had an impact on their results and the market value affected due to a lower expectation of return on the part of investors. A sample of non-financial companies listed on B3 S/A - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão was analyzed for the year 2020, first and second quarters of 2021, with data collected from Refinitiv®. At first, the earnings per share forecasts of the companies in the sample were estimated using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1), which were compared with the earnings per share actually realized by the companies in the quarters from 2020Q1 to 2021Q2, in due to being the first quarterly results released that show the effects arising from the crisis in the context of the Covid-19 Pandemic on companies. In addition, for data analysis, mean, median and correspondence analysis tests were carried out, as well as a linear regression model with panel data that seeks to relate the accounting characteristics of companies with the effects on profits. The results show that Covid-19 affected profits differently between the medical sectors, which accounting characteristics are associated with the intensity of the effects of this context on profits. Thus contributing to the empirical evidence that the sectors that make up the B3 adopted different behaviors in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic.