Arranjos federativos e federalismo fiscal: uma proposta de fusão de municípios no Brasil

Abstract

The Brazilian federative model is considered unique in the world for granting municipalities the status of federated entities. However, the literature points out two weaknesses of Brazilian fiscal federalism, aggravated by the scenario established by the Federal Constitution of 1988: low tax collection effort and horizontal fiscal imbalances at the municipal level. In this sense, it’s apropriate studies about the effects of a relatively common process in the international experience, but which is rarely discussed in Brazil: federal rearrangement through municipalities amalgamation. This research proposes the thesis that municipal amalgamations based on municipal tax collection effort causes, simultaneously, increase of operational self-financing and the reduction of horizontal imbalances among Brazilian municipalities. Considering data from 2013 to 2021, the effects of tax collection effort on the operational self-financing of Brazilian municipalities were analyzed using quantile regression. Then, an amalgamation model was elaborated with the purpose of maximizing the average municipal layer tax collection effort. The results of merger process points to a new municipal scenario with 1,656 units — a 70% reduction in the total number of municipalities. The municipal tax collection effort rises from 6.9% to 9.7% (an increase of 40%) and from 15% to 20.4% — raising by 36% — the municipal self-financing level. Through coefficient of variation analysis, the units were also 15.4% less dispersed for operational self-financing and 25.7% less dispersed for GDP per capita, indicating a reduction in horizontal imbalances between municipalities. The findings demonstrate that municipal amalgamation, although little debated in Brazil due to constitutional limitations, is potentially capable of increase operational self-financing and, simultaneously, reduce horizontal fiscal imbalances of Brazilian municipalities.