Análise de sensibilidade de premissas atuariais: o caso de um RPPS paraibano.

Abstract

The present work aimed to analyze the impact of the variation of actuarial assumptions on the Normal Cost and the Mathematical Provision of a benefit plan offered by a Social Security System. For this, a database was used referring to 2001 participants of a plan offered by an RPPS and composed of the variables type of position, sex, civil servant's date of birth, date of admission in the municipality, participation salary, contribution time of the server for the RGPS, prior to the date of admission of the entity. Based on the Projected Unit Credit costing method, the minimum and average age of entry into the labor market, the probability of the participant being married and the mandatory age were considered constant in all scenarios. The general mortality table assumptions, actuarial interest rate, salary increase and postponement of retirement were varied, and Normal Cost and Mathematical Provision were calculated. Among the main results, the assumption that most impacts Normal Cost and Mathematical Provision is the interest rate, followed by the postponement of retirement. In addition, it was verified that the effect of the joint variation of assumptions is greater than the sum of the effects of individual variations, giving evidence that the impact of the variation of assumptions is not linear. Finally, the results show the need to carry out adherence tests of actuarial assumptions.