Análise econômica de entes subnacionais: estimação e aplicação de índices de atividade econômica para os estados nordestinos (2004-2023)

Abstract

This dissertation aims to estimate monthly Economic Activity Index (IAE) for the states in the Northeast region of Brazil (Paraíba, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Pernambuco, and Rio Grande do Norte) in the period from Jan/2004 to Jul/2023, based on the IMEC-FIPE. After developing the indicators, the intention is to date the economic cycles in the analyzed states and estimate the Laffer Curve for state revenue of ICMS. The main results indicate a good long-term fit of the measured indicators when compared to official indices (IBCR-NE and IBC-Br). Using economic cycle dating models (Bry-Boschan and Markov-Switching), it was possible to create a monthly chronology of recessions in the Northeastern states for the studied period and estimate the probabilities of remaining in recessionary scenarios. Finally, with the estimation of the Laffer Curve, it was observed that the critical rates (which maximize revenue) for ICMS range between 18.58% and 20.58%, with only the state of Paraíba applying a nominal rate close to this value. Thus, the computation of the IAE was carried out for the intended states, highlighting its ability to measure the level of economic activity, streamline the interpretation of the economic scenario, and reduce the time between data collection, manipulation, and indicator disclosure. It is concluded, through its applications, that the IAE also plays a relevant role in shaping the expectations of economic agents and guiding public policies.