Bolsa Família, endividamento e inadimplência de pessoas físicas: uma análise para os Estados Brasileiros, 2016 a 2021

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of Bolsa Família transfers on default and indebtedness of Brazilian families, considering the period from 2016 to 2021. Using an econometric model of panel data for Brazilian states, the research adopts a quantitative and descriptive approach to examine the relationship between Bolsa Família transfers, unemployment rate, GDP per capita, Selic rate, IPCA, credit supply and level of education, and the dependent variables default rate and indebtedness rate. The results indicate that income transfer programs are associated with a reduction in indebtedness, suggesting that they can act as an aid to interrupt debt cycles. However, a significant direct effect on default was not observed, possibly due to the use, by beneficiaries, of resources for basic needs to the detriment of paying debts already incurred. With the inclusion of a dummy variable representing the period of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 and 2021), the total Bolsa Família transfers remained negative and significant, where higher volumes of resources paid through the program reduced indebtedness. However, there was no increase in the intensity of this effect, as the interaction of the pandemic dummy and transfers was not statistically significant. The research highlights the complexity of the economic activities involved, also influenced by inflation, unemployment, and other socioeconomic conditions. The research concludes that Bolsa Família can help reduce household indebtedness, but is not enough to reduce default, suggesting the need for complementary policies, such as financial education and support for debt renegotiation, to maximize the positive effects on household financial health.