Fatores que impactaram a rentabilidade dos investimentos dos fundos de pensão deficitários no período de 2018 a 2022

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the factors that had an impact on the profitability of investment assets in deficit pension funds in Brazil between 2018 and 2022. Descriptive analysis and multiple linear regression with panel data were used to understand the influence of variables related to asset allocation strategies along with the actuarial aspects of the plans. Research has shown that although variable income boosts returns, it also increases vulnerability to risk, especially in times of economic instability such as the Covid-19 health crisis in 2020. Checking the data, it was observed that although the allocation of a large part of the investments in fixed income brought greater security, this choice ended up restricting the ability to obtain gains in times of market boom, such as in 2019 and 2021. There was also an attempt to diversify investments further by investing in structured investments and abroad. The Actuarial Target variable stood out as the main factor with a negative and statistically significant impact on profitability, showing that failure to meet this target compromises investment performance. Thus, it can be concluded that the actuarial target, actuarial solvency and financial maturity, as well as investments in the structured segment and abroad, were factors that impacted the profitability of deficit pension plans during the pandemic period.