Análise dos efeitos demográficos, econômicos e epidemiológico sobre o resultado do Regime Geral de Previdência Social

Abstract

The General Social Security Regime (RGPS), according to official data from the Brazilian Federal Government, has shown successive negative results, raising concerns about its sustainability. This study aims to analyze the effects of demographic structure and economic conditions—considering the COVID-19 pandemic period—on the RGPS outcome. A quantitative approach is adopted, including a descriptive analysis of RGPS results, paired t-test and Wilcoxon test to assess the pandemic's impact, Spearman correlation analysis, and multiple logistic regression to examine the relationship between RGPS results and economic and demographic variables. The findings reveal significant changes in the RGPS primary result during the pandemic, particularly an intensified deficit. Statistical modeling identified that variables such as formal employment, minimum wage, inflation (IPCA), and net public sector debt have statistically significant effects on the social security outcome. Notably, increases in the minimum wage raised the likelihood of deficits. These findings support the exogenous perspective in pension literature, which attributes imbalances in the system to macroeconomic dynamics, especially labor market conditions. Furthermore, the results contribute to the technical debate and the development of strategies aimed at ensuring the sustainability of Brazil's social security system.