ANÁLISE ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DE MÉDIO E LONGO PRAZO DA LINHA COSTEIRA E PREVISÃO DE POSIÇÕES FUTURAS COM BASE EM SENSORIAMENTO REMOTO: UM ESTUDO DE CASO DO MUNICÍPIO DO CONDE/PB

Abstract

The coastal region, an area susceptible to natural and anthropogenic actions, undergoes significant changes over time that affect the environmental, social, and economic spheres. Thus, conducting research that examines changes in coastal areas and understands their dynamics and trends over the years becomes essential. In this context, this work discusses the acquisition of representative annual coastal lines and monitoring coastal changes in the municipality of Conde, Paraíba State. For this, satellite images were processed to remove clouds with the aim of obtaining the shoreline. The methodology used for cloud identification and removal proved to be efficient, allowing the use of images that would otherwise be discarded. After obtaining the instantaneous coastal lines, the probability map was calculated, aiming to obtain representative coastal lines for each annual group of images. The long-term analysis (1985–2022) revealed that 62.01% of transects showed erosion. The mid-term analysis, using the endpoint rate, showed a progressive increase in erosion in certain areas, possibly due to an increase in human activities. Predictions for 2032 and 2042, using the Kalman filter, indicate the continuation of erosive trends, particularly in areas identified as highly vulnerable.