Ciclos políticos eleitorais: uma análise do comportamento das despesas de pessoal dos municípios brasileiros entre os anos de 2002 a 2021

Abstract

Do reelection periods increase personnel expenses in Brazilian municipalities? This paper investigates the hypothesis that politicians facing reelection tend to increase current personnel expenses during election periods. The study aims to deepen the understanding of the interaction between political cycles and fiscal policy, analyzing whether the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF), which imposed restrictions on public spending, especially in election years, alters opportunistic incentives in fiscal management. To submit the hypothesis for evaluation, data made available by IPEA, TSE and SIDRA during the years 2002 to 2021 were used. The unit of analysis was composed of the 5,5479 municipalities present in Brazil in the year 2000. The analysis technique employed consisted of a panel data model with fixed effects, with the purpose of estimating the effect of reelection on the current personnel expenses of municipalities. The results indicate that the proximity of the electoral calendar and the institution of reelection are associated with a significant increase in personnel expenses, evidencing opportunistic behavior on the part of managers. Despite the restrictions imposed by the LRF, it is observed that mayors seeking reelection strategically adjust public expenses to meet electoral expectations. The study contributes by expanding the literature on political-budgetary cycles in Brazil, offering a long-term analysis that covers five electoral cycles subsequent to the implementation of the LRF. Furthermore, by focusing on personnel expenses as a central variable, the work fills an important gap in the literature, distinguishing itself from other studies that focus on visible investments, such as infrastructure and health. The research also incorporates exogenous events, such as the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, enriching the analysis and contextualizing the results.