Propensão à automação das tarefas e dinâmica do emprego no mercado de trabalho formal da Paraíba

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between the propensity for task automation and the dynamics of employment and remuneration in the formal labor market of Paraíba. For this purpose, a risk index is developed based on the frequency of keywords extracted from the Brazilian Classification of Occupations (CBO), which allows for the classification of occupational families into four risk groups. The analysis uses microdata from the Annual Report of Social Information (RAIS) for the period from 2014 to 2023, examining the evolution of employment and real wages at a regional level. The results reveal a dual employment structure, with 47.43% of jobs in 2023 located in medium-high and high-risk occupations. The temporal analysis of the decade demonstrates that job creation dynamics were predominantly driven by regional factors. Regarding remuneration, a persistent pattern was observed in which low-risk occupations maintained consistently higher wages than other groups. The robustness of this negative association between risk and wages is confirmed by two distinct econometric approaches. A cross-sectional model for 2023 with regional controls and a panel data model with year fixed effects for the entire period both yielded statistically significant results. It is concluded that automation risk is a relevant factor in wage determination in Paraíba, but that geographic dynamics are the main driver of employment evolution, pointing to a structural heterogeneity in the state's labor market.