Demanda de medicamentos oncológicos: um estudo a partir da projeção demográfica

Abstract

The Brazilian healthcare system faces significant challenges considering demographic changes. The demographic transition, marked by the accelerated aging of the population, directly impacts the demand for medical care and pharmaceutical products, especially among the elderly. In this context, the health scenario is further strained by the growing prevalence of Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases, such as cancer, which now represent the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the country. The Unified Health System and the supplementary healthcare sector must adapt to ensure access and market sustainability in response to the rising incidence of Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to analyse the projected demand for oncological medications based on demographic trends. Data from DataSUS and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics population census were used to project the demand for oncological drugs through 2070. The results show that cancer incidence rates are significantly higher among older age groups, affecting approximately 1% of the elderly population. Projections from 2024 to 2070 indicate an approximately 478% increase in the number of new cancer cases among individuals aged 80 and over by the final projected year. This growth reflects population aging and the associated challenges of increased longevity. Therefore, it can be concluded that, despite the sharp rise in demand for oncological medications, this growth trend continues only until 2059. After this point, a deceleration is observed through 2070, potentially reflecting the impact of technological advancements and improved treatment efficacy.