Quebras estruturais, assimetrias nas preferências e não linearidades na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil

Abstract

The occurrence of the Inflation Target Regime (IMR) occurred since 1999, when the exchange control system was abandoned to make use of the short-term interest rate (Selic) as a monetary policy instrument in order to achieve controlled inflation. Therefore, this work has the purpose of analyzing how has been the conduct of monetary policy January 2000 to June 2018, investigating the possibility of occurrence of asymmetries in the preferences of the monetary authority. These may be the result of shocks that have reached savings during those years, as well as the four presidents who were at the forefront of this body. In addition, we sought to find out if there were structural breaks and non-linearities in the reaction function adopted as a rule of policy. The methodology adopted is based on Surico (2007) and Perron and Yamamoto (2015) and the results demonstrated the existence of asymmetry in the preferences, in which the loss generated by a deviation from negative inflation is greater than that of a positive loss of the same magnitude and , for the case of the test of the structural breaks for known dates, the occurrence of the same in the years of 2004, 2007 and 2011 was evidenced