Associação entre o envelhecimento populacional e o resultado atuarial dos RPPS municipais da Paraíba

Abstract

Population aging has intensified the challenges related to the sustainability of social security systems, especially those that depend on the balance between age structure, funding, and contributory capacity. In the Brazilian context, this issue is particularly relevant to the Social Security Systems for Public Servants (RPPS), since many municipalities present financial and actuarial weaknesses, as well as marked heterogeneity in their demographic and pension characteristics. In this context, the present study analyzes the association between population aging and the actuarial result of municipal RPPS in the state of Paraíba. The research adopts a quantitative approach, based on data from the Actuarial Evaluation Results Statements (DRAA), obtained from CADPREV, and demographic information from SIDRA/IBGE, covering 53 municipalities in Paraíba with RPPS. To achieve the proposed objective, descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, multiple linear regression, and diagnostic tests were employed. The results reveal high dispersion among the systems analyzed, with a predominance of negative actuarial results and the presence of both positive and negative extreme values. In the bivariate analysis, pension dependency showed a negative and statistically significant association with the actuarial result. In the models standardized by active insured members, this variable remained the main statistically significant factor, with a negative coefficient, even after excluding the main positive outlier from the sample. In contrast, the aging index did not show statistical significance in the cross-sectional setting adopted, which does not imply its irrelevance to pension sustainability, but rather suggests that its effects tend to manifest indirectly, cumulatively, and over time. Diagnostic tests indicated better performance of the standardized models compared with the level model, although residual normality was rejected in all three cases. As limitations, the study highlights the use of cross-sectional data, which does not allow the temporal dynamics of population aging to be captured, the restricted number of municipalities analyzed, and the absence of institutional, fiscal, and registry-related variables that may also influence the actuarial result. It is concluded that the sustainability of municipal RPPS in Paraíba depends more immediately on the relationship between beneficiaries and active insured members, without disregarding the relevance of demographic dynamics as a long-term structural determinant.