Regulação de políticas públicas frente ao envelhecimento populacional para sustentabilidade do sistema previdenciário: análise comparativa e propostas de melhoria

Abstract

Population aging represents one of the most pressing contemporary challenges to the sustainability of social security systems, placing growing pressure on pay-as-you-go regimes in contexts of declining fertility and increasing longevity. This study aims to analyze how different public policy regulations adopted by Brazil, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Canada in response to population aging may contribute to improvement proposals for the Brazilian social security system. The research employs a qualitative approach, exploratory and descriptive in nature, using a bibliographic and comparative technical procedure grounded in literature review and secondary data analysis from national and international institutional sources. The results show that countries endowed with automatic adjustment mechanisms — such as the Swedish notional accounts model and the Canadian triennial actuarial review system — demonstrate greater capacity to respond to demographic changes without dependence on ad hoc legislative reforms. The comparative analysis of old-age dependency ratios, social security expenditures, and regulatory models identified the following adaptable best practices for Brazil: the institutionalization of automatic adjustment mechanisms linked to longevity, the strengthening of independent actuarial assessment, and the construction of multiparty political consensus for long-term structural reforms. The study concludes that the sustainability of the Brazilian social security system requires not only parametric reforms, but the construction of a regulatory architecture capable of responding on a continuous and technically grounded basis to ongoing demographic transformations.