Políticas orientadas a missões e a disputa de lobbies na transição energética dos Estados Unidos: O caso do hidrogênio verde nos governos Biden (2021-2024) e Trump (2025)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of government alternation between the administrations of Joe Biden (2021-2024) and Donald Trump (2025) on the implementation of the 45V tax credit, established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to encourage clean hydrogen production in the United States. Using Mariana Mazzucato's mission-oriented policy approach, the research investigates how the state directs technological innovation toward decarbonization, facing challenges such as institutional fragmentation and strong interest group influence. The study highlights the technical and economic competition between green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis with renewable sources, and blue hydrogen, derived from fossil fuels with carbon capture, showing how the eligibility criteria and emissions measurement of the 45V became a field for intense lobbying. The analysis demonstrates that while the Biden administration sought to consolidate an industrial decarbonization mission, the transition to the Trump II administration promoted a regulatory rollback and an institutional reorientation towards “energy dominance” based on fossil fuels, resulting in the freezing of funds and administrative reinterpretations that undermine the original direction of the incentive. The study aims to discuss the vulnerabilities of climate missions in highly polarized political environments, questioning to what extent administrative volatility and power fragmentation in the United States may undermine the stability necessary for long-term strategic investments.